UKTX

How the reception figures are worked out

And, more usefully, how far they can be trusted.

Where the numbers come from

Ofcom publish, for every transmitter, its position, its aerial height, and the effective radiated power of each service. Nobody publishes coverage as reusable data — Freeview's checker exists but its predictions are not licensed for reuse, and are not used here — so coverage has to be modelled from those inputs.

The model is ITU-R P.1812-8, the International Telecommunication Union's point-to-area method for VHF and UHF. It is the same family of method used for broadcast planning. Our implementation agrees with the ITU's own validation data to 4.8×10⁻⁹ dB across 63 test paths, so any error here is in what we feed it, not in the arithmetic. [V]

The ground between transmitter and receiver comes from OS Terrain 50 across Great Britain and Copernicus GLO-30 for Northern Ireland, the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man, sampled every 50 m along the path. Land cover comes from ESA WorldCover, which is what distinguishes a path over a town from one over a field, and sea from land.

What counts as good reception

A prediction is a field strength in dB(µV/m); a verdict needs a threshold to compare it against. Those are the ITU's published planning figures, not ours:

Every threshold is a median at 10 m above ground, which is how the ITU define them. The evidence tag is on the figure, not the source: two of these are ITU's own numbers, one adds arithmetic of ours, and the FM pair depend on an area class nobody publishes.
ServiceReception assumedMinimum median
Television, DVB-T2 — PSB3 (BBC B) onlyITU-R BT.2254-4, Section 3.3.2 (Band IV/V table, "Fixed" column)DVB-T2 fixed rooftop, 95% of locations54 dB(µV/m) [D]
Television, DVB-T — every other multiplexITU-R BT.1368-13, Table 53 (8 MHz system, 64-QAM 2/3)DVB-T fixed rooftop, 95% of locations (550 MHz)54 dB(µV/m) [I]
FM, ruralITU-R BS.412-9, Section 1.1, Table 1FM stereo, rural (area class assumed)54 dB(µV/m) [A]
FM, large citiesITU-R BS.412-9, Section 1.1, Table 1FM stereo, large cities (area class assumed)74 dB(µV/m) [A]
DABITU-R BS.1660-7, Annex 1, Section 2, Table 1T-DAB mobile, 99% of locations58 dB(µV/m) [D]

Where it is wrong, and by how much

Three known optimisms, in rough order of size:

1. Television transmitters are treated as omnidirectional at full power. Most are not. Ofcom publish radiation patterns for radio but, for television, only for a set of mostly small relays — a 2009 Freedom of Information release covers 70% of transmitter records but only a few per cent of households, and not one of the 93 stations above 100 kW. So off the main beam, a television prediction here can be substantially high. [D] FM and DAB do not have this problem: patterns are published for 99.4% and 98.9% of radiated power respectively.

2. Local clutter is not modelled. The path over the ground is modelled, including the height of buildings and trees along it. What is not modelled is the last hundred metres — your neighbour's roof, the tree in the way, which side of the house the aerial is on. Those routinely cost more than everything else on this list.

3. Interference is not modelled at all. The prediction is a field strength against a noise-limited threshold. Co-channel interference from a distant transmitter on the same channel, which is what actually limits reception in much of lowland England, is not in it.

How far it has been checked

Ofcom published predicted coverage for 81 named sites. Against that table, this model gets the order right and the size wrong:

Ofcom's own table is from 2007 and pre-switchover, which is part of why the areas differ — but only part. The middle 80% of sites fall between 1.24× and 6.73×.
TestPass markMeasured
Rank agreement with Ofcom, three PSB multiplexes0.800.861passes
Rank agreement with Ofcom, all six multiplexes0.800.838passes
Sites where the commercial multiplexes reach fewer people than the public service ones90%100%passes
Our service area against Ofcom's, median2.50×does not pass

The third row is the one worth pausing on: nothing in the model is told that the commercial multiplexes radiate less power than the public service ones. It falls out of the published figures, on every site. [V]

Read that as: if this site says transmitter A is a better bet than transmitter B, that ranking is supported. If it says a transmitter covers a particular place, that is a weaker claim, and the further out you go the weaker it gets. It is why transmitter pages give coverage as a share and never as a number of households.

Everything in more detail

The full working — every parameter, every trap in the source data, and the measured cost of each step — is kept alongside the code rather than summarised here, so that it cannot quietly diverge from what actually runs.